Horse handicapping is often called an art or a science when it is practiced by the very skilled, but, for many people, it is an utter mystery. This should not be the case. There are such a wide variety of techniques that there is undoubtedly a method for everyone, amateur or pro, that can be derived from reading and studying past performances in the Daily Racing Form. This newspaper is absolutely essential in making educated wagering decisions on horses. Within its charts and tables is everything needed to begin betting in an informed and intelligent manner. Each of these basic strategies will at least provide an understanding from which to begin handicapping. It is important to remember that the underlying theory in all of horse-betting is to find value within the odds. That is, to find the horse whose odds are higher than his actual chance of winning. This might be the favorite or the long-shot, only well-thought handicapping will reveal where the values are hidden. One thing to remember is to never depend solely upon one system. Handicap each race in two or three different ways and compare your results. If one horse stands out when three different sets of criteria are applied there is a good chance he could be running in the money. Be sure to see if that horse holds any value in his odds, because many people could well have come to the same conclusion and, if so, lay-off until a better value comes around. Speed Handicapping Strategies for Beginners Beyer Speed Figures are a representation of the speed of a horse in its previous races. These numbers are formulated based primarily on time and track conditions and are recognized as a highly effective starting place when handicapping a race. The numbers appear in bold print just to the left of the race call margins in the Daily Racing Form’s past performance history. The first thing to look for are horses who are simply outclassed in the speed department. The Beyer number on the two most previous races is a good indication of a horse’s readiness and capability for the given race. If seven of the horses have recent numbers that are 30+ points higher than the remaining three entrants in a ten-horse field where the horses have established form histories, it is very likely that those three horses with low numbers are going to be no-where near the front when the race is finished. They can generally just be written off. This use of the Beyer Speed Figures to eliminate non-contenders is standard for many handicappers. Always cross off the horses that don’t have a chance at the wire in order to only deal with the true contenders. Once the also-rans have been eliminated look at the horses with the highest Beyer Speed Figures and pick the top four based upon the two most recent performances. These are the horses with the best overall speed and they need to be further scrutinized. First, check to see if any of the horses’ three most recent Beyer numbers is higher than every other entry’s previous three. If this is the case, called a Triple Beyer, that horse is likely to lead the pack, maybe even wire to wire, because his inherent speed is simply higher than the competition. Due to the fact that speed handicapping is so popular, an entry with a Triple Beyer could be bet down to no real value and such a horse would not necessarily be one to wager on. Make each bet on a case-by-case basis based on underlying value, not likelihood to win. Another step in speed handicapping is to compare the entries with top Beyer Speed Figures to those with the highest Racing Form Speed Ratings. The racing form speed numbers can be found to the left of the finishing order information from previous races. The number is actually two numbers separated by a hyphen and looks like this: 84 – 12. The numbers should be added together; in this example the racing form speed is 96. Make a list of the top four horses in the race based on these numbers and compare it to the Beyer Figures list. If a horse is significantly higher-rated on the form’s speed index than on the Beyer index he may be overlooked by the public and provide a value bet. Another application of speed to handicapping strategy is to analyze the recent workouts a horse has had in its preparation for the race. Workout information is found in the Daily Racing Form past performances just above the Trainer stats at the bottom left. It says “WORKS:” and shows the date, distance, speed, track conditions and more. A horse with a bullet (bold-face black dot) before the date and an uppercase “B” following the entry are indications that this horse posted the fastest speed at that distance for the morning (only if four or more horses worked out at that distance) and that it did so without urging from the jockey (The “B” stands for Breezing). If a horse earned “the bullet” in easy fashion it could be ready to perform in winning style, especially if other speed indicators fall into place. None of these methods of speed handicapping will work alone and provide big profits. Other factors, particularly track conditions and level of competition, have great impact on speed and need to be considered by a smart handicapper. Look for value from a variety of angles and learn to only wager when the risk and reward are improperly balanced towards well-researched probabilities. Good luck!
|